By .According to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, Imran Khan, the incarcerated founder of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is not expected to be released soon. Meanwhile, BMI forecasts challenges for the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government, suggesting it could face instability within the next 18 months amidst economic uncertainties.
BMI predicts that despite legal appeals, Imran Khan will likely remain imprisoned. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) coalition is anticipated to stay in power and implement fiscal reforms mandated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), despite considering banning PTI over alleged anti-state activities.
In the event of a government change, BMI suggests a technocratic administration is more likely than fresh elections. The report emphasizes downside risks to Pakistan’s economic growth, citing vulnerabilities to external shocks and political instability, which could derail recovery efforts.
Economically, BMI forecasts Pakistan’s GDP growth to accelerate from 2.4% in fiscal year 2023-24 to 3.2% in 2024-25, driven by monetary easing, improved agricultural output, and moderated inflation. However, it warns of potential risks such as inflation rising faster than expected, impacting the State Bank of Pakistan’s policy decisions.
